{"id":33155,"date":"2024-08-12T10:15:29","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T14:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/?p=33155"},"modified":"2024-08-12T10:15:29","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T14:15:29","slug":"how-ev-depreciation-is-clouding-the-electric-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/how-ev-depreciation-is-clouding-the-electric-future","title":{"rendered":"How EV depreciation is clouding the electric future"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">As Ferrari pumps out its first electrified automobiles, it is offering customers a full battery replacement. The battery warranty is intended to maintain not just the car\u2019s performance, but its resale value.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">The Italian automaker\u2019s guarantee is the latest sign that electric vehicles have a growing challenge \u2014 and it\u2019s not just cost and range anxiety relative to their gas-powered peers. EV residual values are cratering compared to their gas-powered peers, harming resale value for owners who have otherwise enjoyed lower ownership costs due to EVs&#8217; low maintenance and refueling expenses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Experts say the reasons for EV depreciation vary from the flood of new models in the market to battery degradation after years of charging. A\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iseecars.com\/used-car-prices-study\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|${u}\">recent study<\/a>\u00a0from iSeeCars.com found EV residuals fell 31.8% over a year ago (a value loss of $14,418) compared to 3.6% for gas engine vehicles. Yet, while EV deprecation is sour news for owners, lower EV values \u2014 combined with higher government incentives \u2014 could open the opportunity to a wider demographic of buyers to try EVs as manufacturers try to meet government sales mandates.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"gnt_em gnt_em_img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.detroitnews.com\/gcdn\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/01\/24\/PDTN\/72343459007-ap-24023684628468.jpg?width=660&amp;height=372&amp;fit=crop&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"Tesla sells more EVs in the U.S. market than any other automaker, but its models aren't immune from the steep depreciation affecting used battery-powered vehicles.\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" \/><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"gnt_em gnt_em_img\"><em>Tesla sells more EVs in the U.S. market than any other automaker, but its models aren&#8217;t immune from the steep depreciation affecting used battery-powered vehicles. Mike Stewart, AP<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"gnt_em_img_ccw gnt_em_img_ccw__cap gnt_em_img_ccw__crd\" data-c-caption=\"Tesla sells more EVs in the U.S. market than any other automaker, but its models aren't immune from the steep depreciation affecting used battery-powered vehicles.\" data-c-credit=\"Mike Stewart, AP\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">\u201cVehicle deprecation over the initial years of ownership is the most expensive part of owning a new car,\u201d said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com. \u201cAs more EV buyers become aware of that fact, the fewer will be interested in ownership.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Concerned over owner backlash, some luxury automakers are taking action. To protect residual values critical to its brand\u2019s reputation, Ferrari \u2014 which has been making hybrid-electric supercars like the SF90 Stradale and 296 GTB\/GTS since 2019 with its first, fully-electric vehicle coming at the end of 2025 \u2014\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/ferrari-launches-battery-replacement-scheme-preserve-performance-value-its-cars-2024-07-01\/\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|${u}\">has launched an extended, $7,530 battery replacement warranty<\/a>\u00a0so owners can replace the batteries on plug-in hybrid models without facing a high repair bill.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">The so-called Warranty Extension Hybrid and Power Hybrid programs cover battery replacements in the eighth and 16th year of a vehicle\u2019s life (a five-year warranty is already offered) and is intended to &#8220;preserve the performance and excellence&#8221; of hybrid cars, according to Ferrari.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"gnt_em gnt_em_img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.detroitnews.com\/gcdn\/presto\/2019\/08\/02\/PDTN\/4e3822d0-aa98-421c-a2ae-d2fc0092c450-190189-car-Ferrari-sf90-stradale.jpg?crop=4856,2625,x243,y558&amp;width=660&amp;height=357&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"The Ferrari SF90 Stradale, the brand's first plug-in hybrid, is covered by a battery replacement warranty the automaker introduced to preserve the value of used models.\" width=\"503\" height=\"272\" \/><em>The Ferrari SF90 Stradale, the brand&#8217;s first plug-in hybrid, is covered by a battery replacement warranty the automaker introduced to preserve the value of used models. Ferrari<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"gnt_em_img_ccw gnt_em_img_ccw__cap gnt_em_img_ccw__crd\" data-c-caption=\"The Ferrari SF90 Stradale, the brand's first plug-in hybrid, is covered by a battery replacement warranty the automaker introduced to preserve the value of used models.\" data-c-credit=\"Ferrari\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">&#8220;In case of future developments in battery technology, the replacement (battery) will be a new, state-of-the-art component that will ensure the same performance as the original one,&#8221; Ferrari said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Brauer says value retention is particularly important to the Ferrari brand, whose owners expect their $350,000-to-$500,000 purchase to appreciate over time. But the iSeeCars analyst says the depreciation factor is a problem at the mainstream end of the market as well.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">\u201cThere are a lot of factors causing the devaluation of EVs,\u201d he continued. \u201cThere are too many new EVs coming into the market and not enough buyers; a lot of EVs are coming off three-year leases into the used market; and Hertz has dumped thousands of EVs into the used market because customers weren\u2019t renting them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">According to the iSeeCars study, used EV values in June 2023 were 25% (over $8,000) more than the average used gas car price. Fast forward to June 2024, and they were over 8% ($2,657) lower than the average used gas car.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"gnt_em gnt_em_img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.detroitnews.com\/gcdn\/presto\/2021\/12\/27\/PDTN\/e2623ec9-1118-476f-8aaa-cd5abb3b4ebe-HyundaiIoniq5_charge-fr-rr.jpg?width=660&amp;height=372&amp;fit=crop&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"Mainstream EVs like these Hyundai Ioniq 5s face steep depreciation.\" width=\"516\" height=\"291\" \/><em>Mainstream EVs like these Hyundai Ioniq 5s face steep depreciation. Henry Payne, The Detroit News<\/em><\/figure>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">EVs are relatively new to the U.S. market (the best-selling Tesla Model Y, for example, has only been on sale for five years) compared to internal combustion engine peers. But, as they age, battery degradation will threaten to cause further depreciation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">As owners of laptops and smartphones know, battery performance degrades over time. But where laptop users can replace their batteries for $50-$200, car owners are facing a much bigger bill \u2014 estimated at between $15,000 and $22,000, depending on the model.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"gnt_atomsnc\" class=\"gnt_em gnt_em_anc\" data-g-r=\"lazy\" data-gl-method=\"loadAnc\" aria-label=\"Newsletter signup form\">\n<div class=\"label\" hidden=\"\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"message\">\n<div class=\"title\">Get the\u00a0<span class=\"highlight\">Michigan Politics<\/span>\u00a0newsletter in your inbox.<\/div>\n<p class=\"description\">Washington and Lansing, red and blue, we&#8217;ve got your government covered.<\/p>\n<div class=\"frequency\">Delivery: Daily<\/div>\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"input-container populated\">\n<p><input autocomplete=\"off\" name=\"email\" required=\"\" type=\"email\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"clickable\"><\/div>\n<p><label>Your Email<\/label><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"bar\">\n<div class=\"highlight\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progress-primary\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progress-secondary\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">That depreciation was\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/videos\/us\/2021\/12\/30\/tesla-exploded-dynamite-repair-costs-22k-moos-pkg-vpx.cnn\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|${u}\">famously illustrated by<\/a>\u00a0Finland\u2019s Tuomas Katainen, who owned a 2013 Tesla Model S with a battery that expired. The $22,500 estimate to replace the battery was prohibitive, reported CNN \u2014 so Katainen strapped 66 pounds of dynamite to his car in 2021 and blew it up on a YouTube video that went viral.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Katainen\u2019s dramatic display underscores the U.S. government\u2019s regulatory requirement that manufacturers provide at least an 8-year\/or 100,000-mile battery warranty. Tesla claims its batteries will retain at least 70% of charge over eight years,\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.recurrentauto.com\/research\/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|${u}\">but a report from<\/a>\u00a0battery-data firm Recurrent studying real-world driving range found that Tesla batteries degraded on average to 64% of their EPA-rated capacity over three years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Seeking Alpha auto analyst Anton Wahlman notes that the average age of U.S. vehicles is 12.6 years in 2024. Most are powered by gas engines that cost $4,000 to upwards of $10,000 to replace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">\u201cThere are a lot of cars that are on the road longer than eight years. What happens as soon as your EV is past the eight-year warranty?\u201d Wahlman said. \u201cA replacement battery could be a $15,000 or greater part. It\u2019s a ticking time bomb, and a fundamental problem for all buyer demographics.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">In a three-year\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.caranddriver.com\/shopping-advice\/a32494027\/ev-vs-gas-cheaper-to-own\/\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|${u}\">cost-of-ownership analysis<\/a>\u00a0studying comparable Ford and Hyundai EV\/ICE vehicles in the market today, Car and Driver looked at maintenance, refueling and deprecation costs while driving 15,000 miles a year. The study found that the Hyundai Kona and Ford F-150 EVs out-performed their ICE peers in the cost of fuel and maintenance, but that depreciation was the EVs\u2019 Achilles heel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">\u201cIt\u2019s clear that EVs depreciate quicker than their gas counterparts,\u201d the study\u2019s authors conclude, reporting the Kona ICE depreciated by $9,795 compared to $15,305 for the Kona Electric. And the Ford F-150 depreciated by $13,981 while the F-150 Lightning EV lost $15,738.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"gnt_em gnt_em_img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.detroitnews.com\/gcdn\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/06\/27\/PDTN\/74237760007-js-2.jpg?width=660&amp;height=495&amp;fit=crop&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"A three-year cost to own analysis by Car and Driver found the Ford F-150 Lightning lost more value than its gas-powered sibling.\" width=\"519\" height=\"389\" \/><\/figure>\n<div class=\"gnt_em_img_ccw gnt_em_img_ccw__cap gnt_em_img_ccw__crd\" data-c-caption=\"A three-year cost to own analysis by Car and Driver found the Ford F-150 Lightning lost more value than its gas-powered sibling.\" data-c-credit=\"Photo Courtesy Of James Sweeney\">\n<p><em>A three-year cost to own analysis by Car and Driver found the Ford F-150 Lightning lost more value than its gas-powered sibling. Photo Courtesy Of James Sweeney<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Given the price and deprecation challenges of EVs, Wahlman says that \u201cthere is no end in sight\u201d to $7,500 government subsidies to level the playing field for EV buyers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">If EV residuals continue to drop, iSeeCars analyst Brauer says that a wider demographic of buyers is likely to look at EVs \u2014 especially in the used market. A\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.edmunds.com\/inventory\/srp.html?inventorytype=cpo%2Cused&amp;make=tesla&amp;model=tesla%7Cmodel-y&amp;radius=6000&amp;sort=price%3Aasc&amp;pagenumber=2\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|${u}\">search of Edmunds.com<\/a>, for example, finds numerous 2021 model year Model Y Long Range models ($50K when new) with 70,000-80,000 miles for the same $25K price as a new 2024 Chevy Trailblazer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">\u201cPrices are dropping because the market is getting saturated for the luxury, first-adopter car buyers that have been attracted to EVs,\u201d said Brauer. \u201cThe price delta to capture a mainstream buyer is much lower, which is why prices are dropping. But the driving lifestyle is also very different because the mainstream buyer needs the EV for local and long-distance travel.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\"><em>Henry Payne is auto critic for The Detroit News. Find him at hpayne@detroitnews.com or @HenryEPayne<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As Ferrari pumps out its first electrified automobiles, it is offering customers a full battery replacement. The battery warranty is intended to maintain not just the car\u2019s performance, but its resale value. The Italian automaker\u2019s guarantee is the latest sign that electric vehicles have a growing challenge \u2014 and it\u2019s not just cost and range [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33155"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33155"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33156,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33155\/revisions\/33156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}