{"id":25204,"date":"2020-04-17T12:31:26","date_gmt":"2020-04-17T16:31:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/henrypayne.com\/?p=25204"},"modified":"2020-04-17T12:31:26","modified_gmt":"2020-04-17T16:31:26","slug":"payne-infectious-disease-not-climate-emerges-as-globes-greatest-health-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/payne-infectious-disease-not-climate-emerges-as-globes-greatest-health-threat","title":{"rendered":"Payne: Infectious disease, not climate, emerges as globe&#8217;s greatest health threat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div align=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2020\/04\/04\/PDTN\/826116a0-f3ed-4092-b9d8-aca989c56922-2020-0404-mo-TCF1253.JPG?width=540&amp;height=&amp;fit=bounds&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"The US was totally unprepared for coronavirus despite years of infectious disease warnings. Michigan National Guard members move beds for patients with coronavirus at the TCF Center.\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div><p>The US was totally unprepared for coronavirus despite years of infectious disease warnings. Michigan National Guard members move beds for patients with coronavirus at the TCF Center.\u00a0<span class=\"credit\">(Photo: Max Ortiz, The Detroit News)<\/span><\/p>\n<p>As late as early March, Michigan\u2019s auto companies and government leaders were trumpeting a new economic course based on fears that climate change was the world\u2019s greatest health threat.<\/p>\n<p class=\"speakable-p-2 p-text\">Then came the\u00a0coronavirus crisis wake-up call.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Auto companies and governments are now belatedly retooling to fight World War C,\u00a0investing billions to combat a health crisis that has gripped the planet with citizens making radical changes in their behavior to reduce COVID-19 transmissions\u00a0\u2014\u00a0not carbon dioxide emissions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">The new normal confirms what economic and scientific experts at the Copenhagen Consensus and other institutions have warned for decades: That infectious disease, not climate, is\u00a0humankind\u2019s greatest threat and where mitigation dollars can have their biggest impact.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">At a March 4 investor event, General Motors Co. CEO Mary Barra laid out a 50-state, National Zero Emissions Vehicle Program to combat global warming:\u00a0\u201cWe believe climate change is real, it\u2019s a global concern and the best way to remove automotive ambitions from the environmental equation is an all-electric zero emissions future.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">But GM\u2019s $20 billion gamble on electrification with the introduction of 20 EVs by 2023 was quickly drowned out by the coronavirus tsunami. Just six weeks later, all 50 states would be under a major federal disaster declaration for the first time in history \u2014\u00a0not for rising temperatures, but for fear of an infectious disease. Auto sales tanked and the industry transitioned plants\u00a0to make ventilators.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">GM\u2019s climate change ambitions have been echoed by Ford Motor Co., Volkswagen AG, Honda Motor Co. and other automakers \u2014 and dovetail with international and state governments whose climate policies are forcing automakers to convert to electric vehicles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">In her first State of the State address last year, Gov.\u00a0Gretchen Whitmer identified climate change, along with safe drinking water, as the greatest health threat facing the state: \u201cClimate change and extreme weather are already putting Michiganders at risk.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module-position-So0IQyDnYtE\" class=\"story-asset image-asset\">\u00a0<div align=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2020\/03\/04\/PDTN\/9a96aff9-e0a5-48e4-9b0e-38451c09ad4a-GMEVBarra01.JPG?width=540&amp;height=&amp;fit=bounds&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"General Motors Co. Chairman and CEO Mary Barra speaks at a March 4 event detailing GM\u2019s $20 billion investment in electric vehicles in order to address climate change.\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><div>\n<div id=\"module-position-So0IQyDnYtE\" class=\"story-asset image-asset\">\n<aside class=\"wide single-photo\">General Motors Co. Chairman and CEO Mary Barra speaks at a March 4 event detailing GM\u2019s $20 billion investment in electric vehicles in order to address climate change.\u00a0<span class=\"credit\">(Photo: GM)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;As a state, we must take that risk seriously. We cannot and will not wait to act,\u201d she said. Her warning echoed that of presidential candidates like Joe Biden, who last September called global warming \u201cthe single greatest concern for war and disruption in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">In the last year, the Whitmer administration has established a new state office of climate and energy and committed Michigan to the United States Climate Alliance, a group of 24 states and Puerto Rico that has vowed to comply with the stringent demands of the Paris climate agreement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">But the escalation of climate preparation \u2014\u00a0the federal\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gao.gov\/key_issues\/climate_change_funding_management\/issue_summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-track-label=\"inline|intext|n\/a\">Government Accounting Office reports the U.S. has designated $154 billion<\/a>\u00a0to climate-related projects since 1993 \u2014came as scientific experts warned that predictions of global warming had failed to materialize \u2014\u00a0and that\u00a0threats of global pandemics were increasing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">In the last 30 years, frightening forecasts of increased temperatures, hurricanes, and tornadoes haven&#8217;t occurred. For example, the U.N. International Panel on Climate Change, long an activist for global warming mitigation, admits there is \u201clow confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to (human) influences.\u201d From 2005-2017, the U.S. experienced the lowest occurrence of hurricanes in recorded history.\u00a0Closer to home in Michigan, turn-of-the-century\u00a0predictions that the Great Lakes would dry up have been contradicted by record lake levels today.<\/p>\n<div id=\"module-position-So0IQyCvY_4\" class=\"story-asset image-asset\">\n<aside class=\"wide single-photo\"><div align=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2020\/04\/14\/PDTN\/dc2e780b-0a84-4463-8cd7-f640b7cd1dab-GMVentilators185.jpg?width=540&amp;height=&amp;fit=bounds&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"Governments have forced automakers to spend billions on climate change. But now automakers are converting factories to build ventilators to fight a greater threat, corona-virus.\" width=\"540\" data-mycapture-src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2020\/04\/14\/PDTN\/dc2e780b-0a84-4463-8cd7-f640b7cd1dab-GMVentilators185.jpg\" data-mycapture-sm-src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2020\/04\/14\/PDTN\/dc2e780b-0a84-4463-8cd7-f640b7cd1dab-GMVentilators185.jpg\" \/>Governments have forced automakers to spend billions on climate change. But now automakers are converting factories to build ventilators to fight a greater threat, corona-virus.\u00a0<span class=\"credit\">(Photo: Courtesy of AJ Mast for General Motors Co.)<\/div><\/span><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"clearfix\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Meanwhile, the evidence of infectious global pandemics in a connected world continued to rise with the China-sourced 2002 SARS virus, Mexico-origin 2009 H1N1,\u00a0and Africa-sourced 2014 Ebola\u00a0crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">As those fears heightened, prominent Danish environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg convened a\u00a0regular international panel of economists and researchers called the Copenhagen Consensus to assess global challenges\u00a0\u2014\u00a0then rationally prioritize them by economic analysis. For example, in 2012, the Nobel laureate-studded panel assessed the question: \u201cIf you had $75 billion\u00a0for worthwhile causes, where should you start?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">The panel ranked the top 16 of 40 world problems. Climate change didn\u2019t make the list, while five disease mitigation crises \u2014\u00a0including malaria, tuberculosis, and child immunization \u2014\u00a0did.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">\u201cThe investments to combat infectious disease are very cheap and effective, even using conservative assumptions,\u201d said Nobel laureate economist Thomas Schelling. \u201cPolicy-makers can achieve a great amount in this area.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Yet America\u2019s government and media institutions have hyped global warming fears above all else. As the COVID-19\u00a0spread in China in January, the influential New York Times\u00a0continued a daily drumbeat of climate stories, its Business section warning on Jan.\u00a024 that &#8220;Climate Change Could Blow Up the Economy. Banks Aren\u2019t Ready.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">When the coronavirus hit the U.S. in early march, Michigan and the country were utterly unprepared. As cases accelerated, hospitals found themselves overwhelmed with critical shortages of ventilators. Despite the warnings of past pandemics, medical stockpiles and testing infrastructure were non-existent. The auto industry responded, pivoting quickly from producing vehicles to manufacturing ventilators, masks\u00a0and face shields.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">The federal government botched initial test kits desperately needed for the growing pandemic. Experts say that if the $184 billion in climate health had been spent on virus mitigation, the U.S. would be in much better shape today.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">\u201cMoney should be spent anywhere else than climate change,\u201d said James Taylor,\u00a0 who runs the Illinois-based Heartland Institute\u2019s Center for Climate and Environmental Policy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Despite dire warnings of climate catastrophe, U.S. consumers haven&#8217;t\u00a0changed their behavior \u2014 continuing to buy SUVs as predictions of famine and\u00a0disappearing lakes failed to materialize. Behavior changed dramatically in face of the very real COVID-19 threat, however, with Americans self-distancing, donning masks and figuring out new ways to work from home while businesses shut down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">The historic COVID-19 crisis may further stiffen Americans against climate expenditures\u00a0like that advocated by Ann Arbor which plans to spend $1 billion over the next decade to make the city carbon neutral, including a 50%\u00a0reduction in personal vehicle miles traveled. Global warming consistently polls low as a public concern with a\u00a02018 Pew poll listing\u00a0it 22nd of 23 issues. Polls show\u00a030% to 40% of respondents\u00a0say they are not willing to pay anything.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Even as coronavirus\u00a0shifts priorities to more urgent needs, the climate change lobby has continued to resist the new paradigm.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.detroitnews.com\/story\/business\/autos\/2020\/03\/31\/trump-rolls-back-obama-mpg-rules\/5093643002\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-track-label=\"inline|intext|n\/a\">The EPA\u2019s easing of expensive fuel economy regulations<\/a>\u00a0to 40\u00a0mpg on March 31 to aid the corona-crippled auto industry sparked outrage among greens like the Safe Climate Campaign&#8217;s Dan Becker, who said Washington &#8220;is rolling\u00a0back the biggest single step any nation has taken to fight global warming.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Yet the EPA\u2019s own numbers show the original 54.5 mpg-by-2025 standard would reduce global temperatures by a negligible three one-thousands of a degree (0.003) Celsius of warming \u2014\u00a0within the margin of error \u2014 over the next 90 years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US was totally unprepared for coronavirus despite years of infectious disease warnings. Michigan National Guard members move beds for patients with coronavirus at the TCF Center.\u00a0(Photo: Max Ortiz, The Detroit News) As late as early March, Michigan\u2019s auto companies and government leaders were trumpeting a new economic course based on fears that climate change [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25204"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25204"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25204\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25205,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25204\/revisions\/25205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}