{"id":23749,"date":"2019-05-07T14:45:52","date_gmt":"2019-05-07T18:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/henrypayne.com\/?p=23749"},"modified":"2019-05-07T14:45:52","modified_gmt":"2019-05-07T18:45:52","slug":"payne-evs-are-struggling-so-why-are-automakers-betting-on-evs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/payne-evs-are-struggling-so-why-are-automakers-betting-on-evs","title":{"rendered":"Payne: EVs are struggling, so why are automakers betting on EVs?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div align=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2019\/04\/29\/PDTN\/314ecc23-555d-4c2d-83f3-aff15babfaee-TDNBrd_DETROIT_10-24-2018_TDNXX_1_A006__2018_10_23_IMG_Jag_Fr3_4_1_1_S92763T5_L63646744_IMG_Jag_Fr3_4_1_1_S92763T5.jpg?width=540&amp;height=&amp;fit=bounds&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"Jaguar I-Pace sales \u00e2\u0080\u0093 the first direct Tesla-fighter from a European lux-maker \u00e2\u0080\u0093 have been disappointing. Aimed at the Tesla Model S\/X, its costs about $86,000.\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div><p>Jaguar I-Pace sales \u2013 the first direct Tesla-fighter from a European lux-maker \u2013 have been disappointing. Aimed at the Tesla Model S\/X, its costs about $86,000.<\/p>\n<p class=\"speakable-p-1 p-text\">Tesla Inc. reported a bigger-than-expected $702 million loss in the first three months of the year, pushing the electric car-maker back to the capital markets for as much as $2.7\u00a0billion to shore up its dwindling cash reserves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"speakable-p-2 p-text\">The red ink comes amid\u00a0falling U.S. sales for electric vehicles and a struggle to show\u00a0sustainable profits.\u00a0So why are other automakers following its\u00a0battery-powered business model?<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">As part of its &#8220;zero-zero-zero&#8221; strategy, General Motors Co. is promising a zero-emission electric-vehicle\u00a0future as well as an autonomous vehicle-driven promise of zero crashes and zero congestion.\u00a0Ford Motor Co. is making a Mustang-styled Tesla-fighter while also pouring $500 million into EV truck-maker Rivian Automotive\u00a0of Plymouth.\u00a0And Volkswagen AG\u00a0is ending development of\u00a0gas-engine powered vehicles by 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Despite the headwinds facing\u00a0EVs, automakers are betting on an uncertain future for a variety of reasons: fear of\u00a0Tesla dominating &#8220;Generation App&#8221; millennials,\u00a0activism of green CEOs, and the perfect marriage of batteries\u00a0and\u00a0autonomous cars. But the most immediate reason is government \u2014\u00a0not consumer \u2014\u00a0driven.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;First, there is a regulatory push in Europe and China that is driving players to introduce electric vehicles to fulfill their requirements,&#8221; says John Murphy, auto analyst for Merrill Lynch. Global governments \u2014\u00a0including California, the most populous state\u00a0\u2014\u00a0are dictating specific drivetrains for the first time in auto industry history.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Tesla has been\u00a0the runaway sales leader in EVs while charging a premium that often exceeds $100,000 for its cars. Its Model 3 was the best-selling luxury car in the United States last year, and the $40,000-plus EV has vaulted to the top of the sales charts in Europe as the California-maker has expanded overseas.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ad-position-57\" class=\"partner-placement partner-spike ad-gray-border ad-notice ad-paramount-inline partner-placement-visible\" data-ad-placement=\"native-article_link\" data-ad-sizes=\"[&quot;fluid&quot;,[3,3], [2,6]]\" data-monetization-id=\"native-article_link\" data-monetization-sizes=\"fluid,3,3,2,6\">\n<p class=\"p-text\">Yet, sales are down sharply this year in the U.S. as\u00a0the initial Model 3 rush has subsided. So has the\u00a0$7,500 federal subsidy for electric cars, scheduled to phase out over the coming year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">More ominously for automakers,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www2.greencarreports.com\/news\/1122580_sales-of-electric-cars-droop-so-far-this-year-amid-tesla-issues\" data-track-label=\"inline|intext|n\/a\">total EV sales are down<\/a>\u00a0even as competitors entered the market. Sales of GM&#8217;s Chevrolet Bolt are down, for example, and Jaguar I-Pace sales \u2014\u00a0the first direct Tesla-fighter from a\u00a0European luxury-maker\u00a0\u2014\u00a0have been disappointing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">I&#8217;ve experienced the hesitation of potential EV buyers myself. The owner of a Tesla Model 3, I have been swarmed by friends who want to experience the car&#8217;s unique abilities. But when they learn of the compromises an EV owner must endure \u2014\u00a0garage charging upgrades, long waits at charging stations, range anxiety \u2014\u00a0their enthusiasm for\u00a0ownership cools.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Indeed, Tesla-mania tracks early predictions that the Toyota Prius hybrid \u2014\u00a0a runaway sales success in the early 2000s \u2014\u00a0would lead to a hybrid sales wave. Didn&#8217;t happen. In truth, people just wanted the trendy Prius. Other hybrids like the Ford Fusion and Chevy Volt never\u00a0caught on and have been retired.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;People don&#8217;t see EVs as a better solution for their needs than gas-powered cars,&#8221;\u00a0says veteran auto analyst Rebecca Lindland of RebeccaDrives.com.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Still, automakers are betting the farm on EVs: &#8220;We\u2019re committed to an\u00a0all-electric future,&#8221; trumpets GM&#8217;s website. &#8220;It\u2019s a simple equation: More electric vehicles on the road means fewer emissions and cleaner air for all.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div id=\"module-position-Rw_pe36Og3M\" class=\"story-asset image-asset\">\n<aside class=\"wide single-photo\"><div align=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2019\/04\/29\/PDTN\/635690a4-a2ce-4b6b-9bff-8915cd9fa7ec-AP19094026095141.jpg?width=540&amp;height=&amp;fit=bounds&amp;auto=webp\" alt=\"A big reason Tesla struggles is because the high cost of batteries destroys profit margins below $50,000.\" width=\"540\" data-mycapture-src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2019\/04\/29\/PDTN\/635690a4-a2ce-4b6b-9bff-8915cd9fa7ec-AP19094026095141.jpg\" data-mycapture-sm-src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/presto\/2019\/04\/29\/PDTN\/635690a4-a2ce-4b6b-9bff-8915cd9fa7ec-AP19094026095141.jpg?width=500&amp;height=334\" \/>A big reason Tesla struggles is because the high cost of batteries destroys profit margins below $50,000.\u00a0<span class=\"credit\">(Photo: David Zalubowski, AP)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/aside>\n<div class=\"clearfix\">At its headquarters\u00a0this year, VW brand strategy chief Michael Jost told an auto summit that &#8220;the year 2026 will be the last product start on a combustion engine platform.&#8221;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Much of this is regulatory, to be sure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;On some level, they\u00a0<em>have<\/em>\u00a0to say that,&#8221; says Lindland. &#8220;Governments are mandating that they have to build EVs even though demand hasn&#8217;t grown significantly.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">What&#8217;s more, Volkswagen\u00a0is trying to turn the page on its emissions cheating scandal. &#8220;It&#8217;s penance for past sins on Dieselgate,&#8221; says Merrill Lynch&#8217;s Murphy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">But there is also a concern\u00a0among GM&#8217;s Cadillac and other luxury brands that they are losing out to what analyst Lindland calls &#8220;Generation App&#8221; \u2014\u00a0a rising group of worldly, earth-conscious buyers weaned on iPhones who will ultimately aspire to electric chariots.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Adds Murphy: &#8220;You\u2019re looking at a marketing game to attract customers even if they don\u2019t yet buy EVs. There&#8217;s\u00a0concern among luxury-makers that Tesla may be taking market share from them.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">A big reason Tesla struggles is because \u2014\u00a0despite its promise to build a $35,000\u00a0Model 3 \u2014\u00a0the high cost of batteries destroys profit margins below $50,000. Merrill Lynch\u00a0estimates EVs have to be in the $55,000-$60,000-plus price\u00a0range to drive reasonable profit levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;It&#8217;s tough\u00a0to understand why any automaker would significantly push econoboxes in the $30,000\u00a0range unless they need to meet regulatory requirements,&#8221; says Murphy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Makers of those $30,000 econoboxes say, however, that there is legal risk in addition to regulatory. Specifically, they fear that governments will target Big Auto with lawsuits as they did Big Tobacco,\u00a0suing them for such environmental damages as hurricanes and\u00a0fires allegedly\u00a0caused by carbon dioxide\u00a0emissions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;We consider that to be a real business\u00a0risk, so we&#8217;re working very hard to be \u2014\u00a0not\u00a0part of the problem \u2014\u00a0but to be part\u00a0of the solution,&#8221; Honda Motor Co.&#8217;s vice president\u00a0of\u00a0environmental vehicles, Steve Center, told Autoline. Honda makes the $23,000\u00a0Insight hybrid and plans to electrify most of its lineup by 2030.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Don&#8217;t discount the personal activism of CEOs in wanting to be part of that solution, too. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is an outspoken green activist who has made saving the planet part of his company&#8217;s mission statement. His activism is echoed by two new EV partners\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Ford Chairman Bill Ford Jr. and Rivian founder R.J. Scaringe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Scaringe and Ford see eye-to-eye on green activism. \u201cWe believe the world needs to electrify,\u201d says\u00a0Scaringe. Happily, Rivian also meets Merrill Lynch&#8217;s investment threshold for $60,000-plus vehicles. Rivian is\u00a0also attracting investment because it holds a\u00a0key to perhaps the biggest door Tesla\u00a0has unlocked: autonomy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">&#8220;The reason that Tesla&#8217;s valuation has been so high is because of its potential,&#8221; says analyst Lindland. &#8220;Investors see that potential in electrification\u00a0and in self-driving cars.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">And sure enough, markets reacted positively to its stock sale plan\u00a0this week despite the dilution in overall shares. Musk has been as much a missionary for robot cars as for battery power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">Rivian&#8217;s trucks \u2014\u00a0with their &#8220;skateboard&#8221; battery construction opening enormous storage space \u2014\u00a0have\u00a0attracted Amazon investment for its autonomous delivery potential. GM has made Cadillac its lead EV brand, but close behind is its investment in Cruise Automation,\u00a0a West Coast-based ride-sharing competitor to Waymo and Uber that the General intends to staff with driverless Bolt EVs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-text\">These ride-sharing services \u2014\u00a0including one unveiled by Tesla\u00a0last month \u2014\u00a0all test exclusively with EVs. Merrill&#8217;s Murphy\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.smarteranalyst.com\/analyst-insights\/merrill-lynch-spins-bearish-case-tesla-tsla\/\" data-track-label=\"inline|intext|n\/a\">has been bearish<\/a>\u00a0on Tesla&#8217;s profitability:\u00a0&#8220;But\u00a0in reality Tesla has changed the game, and everyone is chasing Elon.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jaguar I-Pace sales \u2013 the first direct Tesla-fighter from a European lux-maker \u2013 have been disappointing. Aimed at the Tesla Model S\/X, its costs about $86,000. Tesla Inc. reported a bigger-than-expected $702 million loss in the first three months of the year, pushing the electric car-maker back to the capital markets for as much as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23749"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23749\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/henrypayne.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}