Will Beckmann run? ( The Michigan View 06.15.11)

Posted by hpayne on June 15, 2011

“It would be darned exciting,” says Michigan political guru Bill Ballenger of a Senate race between WJR Talk Show personality Frank Beckmann and incumbent second-term Democrat Debbie Stabenow.

Yes, it would. And it would be a historic race at a pivotal time when the Senate’s balance of power may be the difference between another American century and an Obamacare-driven plunge into a Euro-style entitlement abyss. These are big questions of which Beckmann — well-read in history and economics — is all too aware.

But while the cheers from GOP insiders for Beckmann to “Run, Frank, run!” come cheap, a Senate race for the radio veteran would not. As Beckmann contemplates running for Senate, political experts say that his formidable obstacles are an illustration of how hard it is for “Joe Citizen” – even one as well-known as Michigan’s Number One Talk Radio host — to run for office in the modern, big-money, media age.

Whether Beckmann runs or not may largely come down to the simple fact that he is an employee — not an entrepreneur or a career politician.

Unlike a Rick Snyder (wealthy entrepreneur) or Stabenow (career pol), Beckmann would have to leave a company job. It is a day job that is not only highly lucrative but one he loves and has spent a 40-year career attaining. It would also mean he would have to abandon broadcasting for his beloved Big Blue football. And while Beckmann is Michigan’s biggest radio personality today — a fact that makes GOP recruiters salivate — the media market is fickle.

Lose his spot for an 18-month campaign and there is no guarantee that it would be there when he returned (should he lose in ’12). Employers and audiences may have moved on. And if he wins, he must uproot his life to six years inside the Washington moat.

Fundraising is also a key.

Beckmann’s notoriety would give him an instant edge — but raising cash is also a slog. “We just don’t know how he would do at fundraising,” says Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research (and a consultant for Senate candidate and Oakland County Drain Commissioner John McCulloch.

“You have to constantly ask people for their money,” says Mitchell, who adds that a 2012 Senate candidate will have to raise $2 million for the primary — and another $15 million for the general. That’s a lotta chicken dinners.

That was not an issue for millionaire Snyder in the 2010 governor’s race. It WAS an issue for his opponent Pete Hoekstra who found fund-raising tedious, hurting his ability to compete against The Nerd’s ATM. McCulloch, a certain Beckmann primary opponent, is not only a proven fundraiser — he is a wealthy entrepreneur.

Stabenow is vulnerable — she polls at a mere 46 percent — and a candidate as fluent in policy as Beckmann could quickly put Senator I-Feel-Global-Warming-When-I-Fly on the defensive.

“What he brings to the table — he could actually articulate an argument against Stabenow. That’s what the Republicans need,” says Inside Michigan Politics publisher Ballenger, referencing tongue-tied GOP electoral disasters like Spence Abraham and Dick Devos.

But the media spotlight can also be cruel to glib radio hosts who have a long podcast-trail of controversial statements. Stabenow and the Democratic Attack Machine will be ruthless in combing Beckmann’s library for damning sound-bites.

And for all the talent Beckmann brings to the table, Mitchell adds that presidential years are a crapshoot for down-ticket races — even the Senate. “You can’t control your destiny in a presidential year,” says Mitchell. If Obama starts to poll over 50 percent, his coattails lengthen, and the hill steepens against for down-ticket challengers.

Ballenger scoffs at the idea that Beckmann will run (and given his love of radio, I’d be surprised too). He says the rumors “are a sign that the GOP is getting desperate.”

Ballenger says the party should forget celebrities and work with what it has — candidates like McCullcoh and Rob Steele (he of the spirited, if doomed, race against John Dingell in 2010). The political vet points to Ron Johnson, a no-name who came out of nowhere to beat Wisconsin household-name-Democrat Russ Feingold last year.

A lot of people said “Ron Johnson — are you kidding me?” says Ballenger. “But he was disciplined, made no mistakes. . . and he won.”

 

 

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